Ukrainians are bracing for what could be the worst winter since the start of the war with Russia, almost five years ago. Residents across the country have faced an onslaught of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure amid record levels of civilian casualties. More of the same tired attempts to ‘negotiate’ between the U.S. and Russia will bring neither the short-term relief nor the long-term peace the region needs.
There is an urgent need for inclusive, sustained diplomacy to break the current cycle of violence. A just and lasting peace will only be possible if the Ukrainian people are fully represented at the negotiating table and their needs and grievances are addressed as part of any future agreement.
Ukraine’s Growing Energy Crisis
Russia has been targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since autumn 2022, with last winter bringing particularly harsh consequences for Ukrainian civilians. Russian attacks on energy generation, transmission, and distribution facilities during the 2025-2026 winter, as well as systematic attacks on centralized heating infrastructure, disrupted heating and water supplies to millions of civilians as temperatures dropped below freezing in the coldest Ukrainian winter since 2010.
One recent strike left at least 600,000 people without power as the city enters a state of “survival mode.”
With expectations of a Russian winter offensive, this year is predicted to be even worse. In recent weeks, Russian missile and drone attacks on power plants, energy grids, and gas stations have escalated. Despite President Trump’s announcement of an “energy ceasefire,” Moscow has continued striking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Residents in Kyiv are facing the brunt of these attacks. One recent strike left at least 600,000 people without power as the city enters a state of “survival mode.”
International humanitarian law is clear that any attack on civilian infrastructure is illegal. The strikes on civilian energy infrastructure in Ukraine have resulted in ICC arrest warrants against four Russian military leaders and a determination by the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine that crimes against humanity were committed during the 2025-26 winter. Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure, whose categorization as civilian is disputed, are also deeply concerning.
The Hard Road to Peace
The only long-term solution to the current energy crisis in Ukraine is to stop the war. Significant and sustained diplomacy is needed to persuade Russia to stop its aggression and advance an inclusive peace process that addresses the needs and grievances of war-affected communities. This will not be easy or quick, but it is essential for a just and lasting peace.
The only long-term solution to the current energy crisis in Ukraine is to stop the war.
The United States is engaged in new diplomacy to try to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine, however recent efforts have been inconsistent and transactional. Some lawmakers have expressed concern that the U.S. may try to broker a deal with Russia without Ukraine’s full involvement. This includes criticism from lawmakers of both parties over the administration’s warming relationship with Russia (for example, see recent statements by Rep. Bill Keating (MA-9) and Senators Thom Tillis (NC) and John Cornyn (TX)). Easing sanctions on Russian diesel in an ill-conceived effort to lower U.S. fuel prices ahead of U.S. elections could undermine pressure on Russia to end the war and hamper U.S. legitimacy in future peace talks.
Future rounds of talks must fully involve Ukraine’s leaders and center the needs and interests of the Ukrainian people. This should include more opportunities for consulting with civil society as part of the peace process, including youth-led and women-led organizations. Not only is it required by the Women, Peace and Security Act (P.L. 115-68), but history has shown that having women at the table increases the chances a peace agreement lasts 15 years by 35 percent. As FCNL previously stated, “any peace process which does not involve the Ukrainian people, or their elected government, will not lead to a just or lasting peace.”
Congress should continue to press for serious, sustained U.S. diplomacy for a lasting and just peace in Ukraine. This is not only the right thing to do in terms of U.S. values, but also what effective peacebuilding requires. Join us in urging Congress to support inclusive diplomacy needed to end the war in Ukraine.
