On June 16, Putin announced that Russia would deploy 40 new nuclear Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) in order to boost its nuclear arsenal. While this statement is a step in the wrong direction, there are three important reasons why no one should be panicking.
1. Russia is still bound to the New START Treaty. The treaty limits the number of nuclear delivery systems operated (missiles and strategic aircraft) by the United States and Russia to 1,550 each. However, the treaty’s limitation only enters into force on February 5, 2018. In the interim, either country can increase its numbers, as the United States has done in the past. The New START Treaty requires each nation to report the number of delivery systems, which are verified by a rigorous inspection regime.
Russia cannot disregard this treaty without serious consequences from both the United States and the international community – risking prolonging and intensifying sanctions in addition to incurring even more expenses due to a new nuclear arms race. Although current developments are concerning, a Russian withdrawal from the New START Treaty is still unlikely.
In order to bring in 40 new missiles and still abide by the New START treaty, Russia will likely have to retire some old missiles as well. Thus, this is not really an addition of 40 missiles, but a replacement of old hardware.
2. New Russian ICBMs are NOT a game changer. Putin stated that the new ICBMs will be “able to overcome even the most technically advanced anti-missile defense systems”. However, he failed to mention that no missile defense system could stop Russia’s old ICBMs either.
There is a reason why missile defense advocates talk about stopping threats from North Korea and Iran, but conspicuously leave out mention of Russia or China. While it is possible to intercept Quassam rockets or Scud missiles, the U.S. does not possess any missile defense system that can reliably intercept Russian ICBM’s. New Russian missiles will not dramatically change the status-quo when it comes to missile defense.
3. Putin did NOT announce any real change. Russia had previously announced that it is modernizing its nuclear arsenal (as is the United States). This statement is consistent with that plan, and does not constitute a significant change of policy.
As Stephen Pifer, a scholar at the Brookings Institution and a former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine tweeted, “Putin’s announcement today that Russia will get 40 ICBMs this year is nothing new. Russia is half-way through a 10-year program to build 400” ICBMs. What we received today was more details of Russia’s existing plan, nothing more.
No one should panic about Mr. Putin’s statement. However, it does send the conversation in the wrong direction. The Russian leadership should recognize that emphasizing its nuclear arsenal will do nothing to aid the security of the Russian people. This is old rhetoric that belongs in the history books, not in headline news.
