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This judgment reflects the apparent absence of “effective” and collective sustained resistance by the remnants of the Chechen rebel movement, largely penned up in the mountains, and Russia’s virtual stranglehold – through Chechen proxies – on the political, educational, economic, social, and justice-security life in the area.
That is not to say that the surviving fighters cannot on occasion cause security force fatalities. On April 27, a Russian Mi-8 transport helicopter, one of five pursuing suspected rebels, crashed, killing all 20 onboard. Initially, Russian officials said the helicopter was hit by ground fire. This explanation was quickly amended to mechanical failure, which in turn gave way to a finding by a Russian aviation investigative board of “human error.”
Most Russian troops appear to have left Chechnya, although information is difficult to get because of tight media censorship by both Chechen and Russian security forces. One sign that Moscow is confident that the rebellion is crushed came in November when the last Russian base and troops were withdrawn from the neighboring Caucasian country of Georgia – a full year ahead of the expected withdrawal date.
Moscow frequently accused Tbilisi of allowing Chechen rebels to use Georgia as a safe haven, a charge always denied. For its part, Russia used the Chechen conflict as an excuse to overfly Georgia and provided political and economic support to demands for independence by two sub-regions of Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Tbilisi regime faces unrest of its own making. In November, President Mikhiel Saakashvili suddenly declared a state of emergency and closed all opposition media because of popular protests against government policies.
