Asia & the Pacific
Two years on, the December 26th, 2004 tsunami remains the dominant influence on many Asian countries. Recovery has been slow – of the $6.7 billion pledged to help rebuild countries hit by the tsunami, only $3.3 billion has been obligated and spent. Many promises made by donors remain unfilled: China pledged $301 million but has actually contributed only about $1 million. France and Spain promised $79 and $60 million, respectively, but again each has actually donated only about one million. Kuwait has yet to deliver any of the $10 million it designated for the Maldives, while the U.S. has actually forwarded to the UN only $70 million of the $400 million promised for Indonesia.
Indonesia. December 19th, 2006 – almost exactly two years after the 2004 tsunami struck, two nearly simultaneous earthquakes measuring 5.8 and 5.7 rocked Sumatra, sending residents in Aceh province into the streets. Seven people died and 100 were injured, but this time there was no tsunami.
The geological earthquakes were not the only ones that affected the people of Aceh in December. A week earlier, on December 12th, Aceh held its first provincial and local direct elections – the result of the 2005 post-tsunami peace agreement between rebels and Indonesia’s central government. It was officially announced in early February that the new governor is Irwandi Yusuf, one of the more prominent separatist leaders of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) that fought Jakarta for three decades. With 25 percent of the province’s population still without permanent housing, Irwandi’s major challenge will be securing and spending equitably the funds promised for rebuilding.
As feared, warfare on the other island nation hit hardest by the 2004 tsunami intensified in 2006, moving Sri Lanka back on the active conflict list. The 28-year long civil war between the country’s majority ethnic Singhalese and the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) seemed headed for a peaceful resolution in 2002 and 2003. Since then the violence has steadily increased until, in 2006, it re-ignited with a vengeance as negotiations in Geneva faltered. Both sides are guilty of attacking civilians as well as military targets. Humanitarian aid has also become an issue. The Tigers want the government in Colombo to open and guarantee safe passage along Highway A-9 that connects the Tamil-dominated north to the rest of the island. The central government insists that ships be used to deliver supplies – but only when the LTTE guarantees safe passage into and out of ports under LTTE control. Neither side has been willing to compromise. Aid groups estimate that such “standing on principles” left some 3,000 Sri Lankans dead in 2006, a toll that is sure to rise in 2007 unless leaders of both sides opt for a peaceful resolution. In that regard, a further blow hit the negotiations in December, when the LTTE’s chief negotiator, Antun Balasingham, died of cancer.
Nepal’s descent into what I had termed “absolute chaos” in early 2005 upon the beginning of rule by royal decree was more than reversed in 2006 when the multi-party parliament reached a peace accord with the Maoist rebels that completely froze the monarch out of the political process. The initial breakthrough came in spring with a provisional ceasefire followed by negotiations on forming a transitional administration that included Maoist leaders. Maoist fighters disarmed and some Royal Nepalese army units dissolved. Two key points that made the December 2006 peace accord a reality were agreement that Maoist fighters would go into camps supervised by representatives of the UN, Nepal’s government, and Maoist cadres; and the Nepalese army’s 238-year long allegiance to the monarch ended as the head of the armed forces pledged loyalty to the Nepalese parliament.
As the calendar turned into 2007, the transitional government was in place, and the peace accord that ended the ten-year war that killed more than 13,000 seemed to be holding. Political activity associated with the projected June elections for a new constituent assembly is also beginning. In terms of government services, the picture is mixed. Some of the estimated 30,000 Maoist former fighters had become ill in the camps, primarily from water-borne illness caused by consuming unclean water and improper sewage disposal. And the king? He and the entire monarchical apparatus are not mentioned anywhere in any of the agreements worked out in the second half of 2006.
While Nepal looked positive, East Timor continued to deteriorate. Following a “strike” by 400 army personnel – about one-quarter of the entire force – over pay and working conditions, the government dismissed 600 soldiers, sparking rioting and looting that left 30 dead and thousands fleeing the violence. Responding to appeals for help, Australia boosted its troop commitment to 2,200 soldiers, restoring order in July as a new government assumed power.
With some 50 separatist groups active in India’s remote northeast, the main wonder is that the perennial low-level fighting and dying does not claim more lives in India’s far northeast states of Assam (Asom), Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Arunachal, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Tripura, and West Bengal. In Assam state, promising moves toward peace discussions finally collapsed over the demand by New Delhi for a written commitment by the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) to negotiate in good faith and a ULFA demand that five of their leaders be freed before talks began. With the two sides at an impasse, in late September Indian army operations resumed, with the ULFA responding with frequent grenade and bomb attacks in Assam’s capital. This surge prompted the government to consider deploying the army in the capital, as has been the case through much of Assam for most of the 27 years of the rebellion. However, the move was opposed by many of the region’s political parties who pressed the government to end military operations and resume negotiations.
In its drawn-out negotiations with New Delhi, the insurgent National Socialist Council of Nagaland continues to demand creation of “Greater Nagalim.” Because this demand for an ethnic-based unified administration for Nagas would subsume large parts of Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh, politicians and nongovernmental groups in these three latter states are adamantly opposed to this demand.
Pakistan-India. Since 1989, more than 60,000 have died in Kashmiri violence. The rate of deaths decreased after the May 2004 truce, but late-year efforts made little progress in resolving the issues dividing New Delhi and Islamabad. A new attempt in April 2005 to jump-start peace negotiations helped, but this too faltered in 2006. In May, the main umbrella resistance group in Kashmir, the All Party Hurriyat Conference, broke off talks after two incidents killed 35 Kashmiris. Then in July, 180 Indians died in a series of rail bombings in Mumbai (Bombay). Nevertheless, at the September gathering of Non-Aligned countries held in Havana, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf pledged to re-invigorate the discussions. The foreign ministers of the two countries met in New Delhi in October to “continue the search for mutually acceptable options for a peaceful negotiated settlement of all issues, including the issue of Jammu and Kashmir.” Some analysts noted the statement referred to “options” in lieu of “solutions,” interpreting this as an admission that much hard work remains ahead. Yet the statement also pointed to an assessment that automatic recriminations after an incident helps neither side, for acts of terror from any source are the real danger to both governments. The peace initiative has helped lower the 2006 death toll from terrorist acts in Kashmir to 1,100, the lowest total since 1989.
Some long-running but low-level confrontations experienced contextual changes in 2006. In Burma (Myanmar), Bo Mya, who resigned in 2004 as leader of the rebel Karen National Union (KNU), died of natural causes in late 2006. The KNU is one of many ethnic-based groups that emerged after Burma’s independence in 1948. In 2004 there was hope that the rebellion would end and the majority of the 320,000 Karens living in Thailand in refugee camps or otherwise displaced by the warfare would be able to return to their homes. But the informal truce agreed in 2004 was never codified, and the low level conflict resumed.
Burma’s ruling junta also refused to lift the house arrest of another opposition figure, Nobel Peace laureate Aung Suu Kyi. Her current detention began in May 2003. Suu Kyi has been under house arrest ten of the past sixteen years, beginning with the May 1990 victory of her National League for Democracy party in national elections, voided by the current junta. The first junta seized power in 1962
In neighboring Bangladesh, a special combined military and police “Rapid Action Battalion” established in 2004 to fight organized crime in the country has been accused of violating the rights of those they take into custody. Human Rights Watch says that more than 350 prisoners died while under the control of this special force – suggesting also that others died “escaping” or “resisting arrest.” January 2007 elections may determine the unit’s fate.
Separatist Islamic militants in southern Thailand have unexpectedly resumed sporadic operations against Thai forces. The shootings and burning of buildings came despite apologies from the new Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, installed after a bloodless October coup, for the policies of the previous government. More than 1,500 people have died in violence in the country's restive south since January 2004.
The Philippines government continues to launch occasional operations in Jolo against remnants of the al-Qaeda-affiliated Abu Sayyaf (estimated 400 fighters) and Jemaah Islamiah group, whose hard core fighters are estimated to number no more than 400. Manila claimed in late December that Abu Sayyaf’s leader, Khaddafy Janjalani, died in the government’s sustained offensive against the Jolo-based criminals. But while the government claims “progress” against these elements, Manila seems to be facing a resurgent New People’s Army
Violence flared again in the Solomon Islands in April as rioters, protesting rigged elections, toppled the newly-installed government of Sydner Rini. His successor, Manasseh Sogavare, pledged he would end widespread official corruption. Lastly, on December 5, Fiji experienced its fourth military coup – and its least violent – in 20 years.
