Georgia
In neighboring Georgia, the ten-year presidency of Eduard
Shevardnadze ended when a bloodless revolution toppled
the government following widespread allegations of rigged
legislative elections. An overwhelming majority, hoping
for better times, elected western-educated Mikhail Saakashvili
as the new president on January 4, 2004. His pro-West
orientation may cause tension with Moscow, which sees
Georgia as part of its "near abroad."
Turkey
and Cyprus
Hints of a thaw in the 30-year stand-off on the divided
island of Cyprus emerged in late 2003 as politicians in
the breakaway Turkish north held informal exchanges with
counterparts from the Greek south. Driving these overtures
is the island's looming membership in the European Union
(EU); the north would be excluded unless it reconciles
with the south.
In an under-reported spill-over from the U.S. effort
to induce Turkey to send up to 10,000 troops to Iraq for
"peacekeeping" duties, Washington undertook
to help Turkey subdue the estimated 5,000 fighters of
the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) after they ended a four-year
truce with Ankara in September. The PKK, labeled a terrorist
group by the U.S., said that the Turkish government failed
to grant cultural and political rights to the Kurdish
population in Turkey. U.S. troops have had at least one
encounter along the Iraq-Turkey border with "unknown
forces" suspected to be members of the PKK (BBC
online, September 2 and November 11, 2003). During
the PKK's 15-year struggle that ended in 1999, more than
30,000 people were killed.
Corsica
Violence returned to the French-controlled island of Corsica
following the rejection of a referendum in July to reform
the island's administrative and political structures and
the conviction of eight separatists charged with killing
a French official in 1998. However, in November, after
a spate of unrest and clashes with police, a new open-ended
truce was declared. The population of Corsica is split
over the question of separation or greater autonomy from
France, a "debate" that has supported a 20-year,
low-level rebellion. Those agitating for outright independence
are blamed for some 200 violent incidents (bombings, drive-by
shootings) in 2003 alone.
Spain
By contrast, the long-running Basque Homeland and Liberty
(ETA) rebellion against Madrid was severely weakened in
2003 by concerted action by French and Spanish authorities — arrests, and the closing down of financial support
— and a backlash against Basque violence that resumed
in 2000 following a 14-month lull. After September 11,
2001, both the U.S. and the EU declared the ETA an international
terrorist organization, which created new pressures on
the group. At issue now is how much autonomy should be
given to the 800,000 Basques.
This
analysis was prepared by Col. Dan Smith, U.S. Army (Ret.).
Dan, a West Point graduate and Vietnam veteran, is FCNL's
Senior Fellow on Military Affairs..
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