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Chief among these groups is the Hutu Democratic
Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda whose leader, Paul
Rwarakabije, declaring that "war is not the best
solution," voluntarily returned to Rwanda in mid-November
to be embraced by the Rwanda Army chief, General James
Kabarebe (BBC online, November 18, 2003). Further
north, near the town of Bunia, both French forces and
UN peacekeepers tried to control armed clashes between
ethnic Lendu (Rassemblement congolais pour la democratie-Kisangani-Movement
de liberation or RCD-K-ML) and Hema (Union des Patriotes
Congolais or UPC). Ethnic violence flared in April when
Ugandan troops withdrew from the area, leaving more than
1,000 people dead (UN Wire).
Amity is growing between DRC and Uganda, partly the result
of the continued repatriation of Ugandan dissidents to
their country under an amnesty program. The latest group
of nearly 400 people, chiefly from the West Nile Front
and the Allied Democratic Forces, left DRC territory in
late December 2003. Kampala is less forgiving when it
comes to the Lord's Resistance Army whose leadership has
steadfastly refused all overtures for peace talks. While
rank and file members of the group, who frequently have
been kidnapped and pressed into armed "service,"
still qualify for amnesty, their leaders do not.
Burundi's fragile ceasefire, arranged at the very end
of 2002, survived 2003. A major test was the peaceful
succession in May of Vice President Domitien Ndayizeye
(a Hutu) to the presidency in place of Pierre Buyoya (a
Tutsi). Although ceasefire violations had been common
all along, in June a new wave of fighting broke out between
the main insurgent group, the Forces for the Defense of
Democracy (FDD) and government forces, compelling tens
of thousands to flee. Finally, in October, after intensive
mediation by South Africa's president and vice-president,
a power sharing agreement was reached between the Burundi
government and the FDD. But almost immediately, the smaller
National Liberation Forces (FNL), which had refused to
join the negotiations, attacked Burundi's capital city.
Undeterred, the government and FDD formally signed the
accord on November 16, calling on the FNL to open peace
talks with the government within three months or be considered
a security threat. Two weeks later, the FNL complied —
only to walk out the next day, claiming that the real
power-brokers, the Tutsi-dominated military, were not
in the government's delegation. Nonetheless, by year's
end the UN Security Council was told that 95 percent of
Burundi enjoyed relative peace.
Sudan
Peace was also on the agenda for Sudan in 2003, although
here too, its course was rocky. The process began in 2002
with a ceasefire between the government and the Sudanese
People's Liberation Army (SPLA). Under the accord, the
mainly Christian and animist south achieved exemption
from Islamic law (Sharia) and transitional autonomy for
six years, after which a referendum on independence would
take place. But negotiations foundered in July over separate
armies, separate banking systems, and the conversion of
Khartoum (which is in the north) into a Sharia-free zone.
Mediators, including a U.S. special presidential envoy,
pressed the two sides to resume discussions in August
to end the 20-year civil war in which an estimated 1.5
million people died and another 4 million were displaced.
In September 2003, the ceasefire was renewed for a third
time as talks continued. By December 2003, agreement on
a joint army and the division of oil revenue had been
reached, but political control of three provinces in which
neither side had undisputed military control remained
unresolved. Talks were carried over to 2004.
Ironically, as Khartoum and the SPLA were talking, a
renewed rebellion by the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM)
flared in the desert region of Darfur in western Sudan
in February 2003. The military wing of the movement, the
Sudan Liberation Army (SLA), conducted numerous raids
through the spring. In early June, a truce was mediated
by officials from neighboring Chad. But August saw a two-week
assault on the western town of Kutum, for which the SLA
was blamed. In September, a 15-person committee was created
to oversee implementation of a new three-month truce,
but continued fighting caused the death toll to rise above
3,000 and sent refugee totals to half a million in November
and a million in December. At year's end, discussions
began on the SLM's demand for autonomy for all
regions under a confederal or federal system and an end
to economic disparity. Khartoum accused Eritrea of supplying
the SLA and also took legal steps to brand the SLA and
SLM as terrorist organizations (Sudan News, BBC online,
UN Wire).
Eritrea
Eritrea, which was severely defeated two years ago in
a war with Ethiopia over their common boundary, reportedly
fears that its bigger rival will restart hostilities despite
the presence of a large (4,200-member) UN peacekeeping
force. Ethiopia refuses to accept the decision of a border
commission that gives the village of Badme, which straddles
the border, to Eritrea. In a separate development, fighting
erupted in western Ethiopia between the two dominant ethnic
groups, the Anuak and Nuer, over land ownership.
Somalia
Somalia made no progress toward re-emerging as a unified
nation-state in 2003. The three-year mandate Transitional
National Government of Abdulkassim Salat Hassan ended
in early August with no successor regime in sight. Salat
then declared that his administration would stay in office
until the talks in Kenya, mediated by the UN, the African
Union, and the regional Inter-Governmental Authority on
Development resolved the issue. While these discussions
managed to get all the contending factions around the
table, they so far have failed to develop a formula for
parliamentary representation that satisfies all parties.
In the absence of sustainable progress despite 14 negotiating
sessions, a dozen groups allied as the Somali National
Salvation Council threatened to boycott further talks.
In the meantime, clan-based fighting about land ownership
broke out in the central part of the country in November
and December.
Land was also the catalyst behind sharply increased tensions
between the two other parts of Somalia, the self-declared
autonomous region of Puntland and the self-declared independent
republic of Somaliland. At issue are two "provinces"
that, during British colonial rule, were administratively
and geographically part of Somaliland but whose clan affiliations
were with the inhabitants of Puntland. At year's end,
armed units from the two regions were reported to be converging
(UN Wire, December 30, 2003).
North
Africa
Back north, on Chad's southeastern border and adjacent
to Sudan, the government of the Central African Republic
(CAR) was overthrown in a March 2003 coup, the first to
succeed after six failed attempts in as many years. The
new president, General Francois Bozize, cited mismanagement
of the country as justification for the coup, but the
African Union condemned the action as a setback for CAR's
struggle to develop its economy and achieve a semblance
of security. A political crisis emerged in December over
alleged widespread human rights violations and atrocities
committed by former fighters loyal to Bozize. Having changed
his prime minister and cabinet, Bozize recalled the long-dormant "permanent" military tribunal to investigate
and conduct trials where appropriate.
Among the countries of North Africa, armed conflict remains
most prevalent in Algeria, where more than 100,000 have
died from the civil war that began in 1991 after the military
stopped elections that probably would have been won by
Islamic conservatives of the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS).
Two of the largest anti-government movements active in
Algeria (and in Europe) are the Armed Islamic Group (GIA)
and a splinter entity, the Salafist Group for Preaching
and Combat (GSPC). Army sweeps and the ebbing of popular
support have reduced the number of active insurgents to
around 3,000 (by government estimates), but armed clashes
still claim hundreds of lives annually. That a military
establishment numbering close to 200,000 cannot defeat
a resistance force of 3,000 reflects the reality that
only the exercise of political remedies, not military
power, can resolve social grievances and injustice. In
Algeria, that lesson seems unlearned not only with regard
to the GIA and GSPC but also to the Berbers, who are agitating
for limited autonomy and recognition of their cultural
identity.
In neighboring Western Sahara, the Algerian-backed Polisario
Front agreed in mid-July to a UN peace initiative that
would have transformed the area into an autonomous province
of Morocco administered by a Polisario transitional authority.
At the end of five years, both the indigenous Sahrawi
and Moroccan settlers would vote either to remain part
of Morocco or to become independent. Inexplicably, Morocco
refused to assent even though the UN plan closely followed
an earlier Moroccan proposal. In late October, after UN
Secretary-General Kofi Annan urged acceptance of the UN
plan, Morocco formally asked for "more time"
to study the proposal (UN Wire, October 21, 2003).
Just to the south in Mauritania, tensions rose following
the re-election in an internationally unobserved ballot
of President Maaouiya Ould Taya to a "third"
five-year term (he has ruled since 1978). The immediate
cause of the tension was the arrest of Taya's opponent
and former co-ruler, Mohammed Ould Haidallah, who was
accused of plotting a coup should he not win. The suggestion
was not unreasonable in that the army subdued such an
attempt in May 2003, by rebel military units thought to
be sympathetic to Saddam Hussein. (Although Mauritania
is an Islamic state, Taya is pro-western and has recognized
Israel.) Exact numbers killed remain murky, with references
to "scores" killed and wounded.
West
Africa
The last and still very volatile area on the continent
is West Africa — chiefly Guinea Bissau, Guinea,
Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d' Ivoire, and Nigeria. In
mid-September in Guinea-Bissau, a bloodless army coup
ousted President Kumba Yala under whom the country's political,
legal, and economic bases were ravaged. A new civilian
caretaker government was installed, and it pledged to
hold parliamentary elections before the end of March.
In next door Guinea, rigged elections held at the end
of 2003 returned long-time president Lansana Conte to
another term in office. However, Conte is believed to
be quite ill, and expectations are that his successor
will be chosen via armed conflict. Like other West African
countries, Guinea is awash with weapons and has deep ethnic
divides.
Moving down the coastline, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and
Cote d'Ivoire remained intertwined in violence and the
human suffering of tens of thousands of refugees. The
combined weight of British, U.S., and French interventions
in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Cote d'Ivorie, respectively,
in support of UN and African peacekeepers, helped dampen
the fighting but did not stop all of it. In Sierra Leone,
security has improved to the point that the UN reduced
its peacekeeping force from 17,000 to 10,000, and now
anticipates ending the mission by the close of 2004. However,
this may be too optimistic as the government remains weak
and corruption is widespread. Liberia's two rebel factions
have generally followed the conditions of the Accra peace
accord which led to former President Charles Taylor's
exile in Nigeria and the formation of an interim government.
But the "success" of the transition threatens
to overwhelm the government and UN authorities who oversee
the demobilization and reintegration program for former
insurgents surrendering weapons for cash. The UN peacekeeping
force of 15,000 established to help with demobilization
takes over from African peacekeepers sent by the Economic
Community of West African States Monitoring Group (ECOMOG)
and itself integrates many of these troops into its structure.
Cote
d'Ivoire
Cote d'Ivoire insurgents, known as "New Forces,"
agreed in late December 2003 to rejoin a unity government
on January 6, 2004, after a three-month boycott. In September
2002, one of the more stable West African countries, Cote
d'Ivoire, was wracked by a violent coup attempt in September
2002 in which thousands died and a million more were displaced.
A January 2003 cease fire and subsequent power sharing
arrangement were plagued by continued violence throughout
2003, with insurgents warning in November that war could
restart at any time. A combined French and ECOMOG force
of 5,000 troops has been able to enforce the "peace"
agreement, but a November summit of African leaders called
on the UN to establish a formal peacekeeping presence
in the country. Secretary-General Annan is expected to
ask the Security Council to authorize a force of 6,000
troops.
Nigeria
ven as it leads and contributes most of the troops that
form various peacekeeping missions under ECOMOG's banner,
Nigeria is beset by widespread violence within its borders.
In the oil-rich Niger Delta, loosely organized militias
representing the three largest ethnic groups are engaged
in frequent attacks on each other and civilians living
in the area. Other deadly rivalries rest on a combination
of ethnic and religious polarity, with the Muslim north
of the country pitted against the Christian south. In
late December 2003, in the northeastern state of Yobe,
members of a fundamentalist movement that claims sympathy
with Afghanistan's Taliban called "Followers of the
Prophet" staged a number of armed attacks on police
stations, causing an estimated 10,000 civilians to flee
(UN Integrated Regional Information Network,
January 6. 2004). Other violence pits farmers against
nomadic tribes that, spurred by increasing desertification
of traditional lands, have been moving south seeking pasture
land. In all, about 10,000 Nigerians have been killed
in sectarian, ethnic, and other armed violence since 1999.
This
analysis was prepared by Col. Dan Smith, U.S. Army (Ret.).
Dan, a West Point graduate and Vietnam veteran, is FCNL's
Senior Fellow on Military Affairs.
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