In July, for the first time
in the 18 months since Israeli forces pulled out of the
"buffer zone" it maintained in southern Lebanon,
Israeli warplanes bombed that country. Israeli warplanes
also attacked a guerrilla "training camp" in
Syria, another "first" in that Israel had not
bombed Syrian territory for 18 years. Meanwhile, Israel
is pressing forward full tilt on constructing a barrier
wall--what Sharon says is a security fence--that makes
deep deviations from the international "Green Line."
These inroads amount to a land grab in the name of "protecting"
Israeli settlements which should be dismantled, not retained;
effectively transforms the West Bank into a series of
disconnected Palestinian enclaves; and renders impossible
the creation of a viable Palestinian state. The Israeli
actions are completely at odds with the letter and spirit
of the U.S.-backed "road map" formally unveiled
May 1, 2003, accepted with some reservations by Sharon,
and endorsed by the UN Security Council in November (Resolution
1515 (2003)). As if this were not enough, on December
31, Sharon's cabinet approved $56 million for doubling
Israeli settlements on the Golan Heights which Israel
captured from Syria in the 1967 war and subsequently illegally
annexed.
On the Palestinian side, the new prime minister of the
Palestinian Authority, Ahmed Qureia, remains hamstrung
(as was his predecessor) by Yasser Arafat's refusal to
transfer control of Palestinian Authority security organs
to the prime minister and his interior minister. Nonetheless,
Qureia managed to convene an early December meeting in
Cairo of all the main groups conducting armed attacks
against Israel. The best proposal on which the factions
could agree was to end all attacks against civilians in
Israel proper but not Israeli troops and settlers in Gaza
and the West Bank. Israel did not accept such a condition,
and the tit-for-tat killing continued without pause into
the new year.
But the impasse in official relations has created space
for individuals and private groups to act. Three non-official
proposals have recently been proposed as means to break
the inertia of Israeli and Palestinian officials.
- A "Permanent Status Agreement," dubbed the
"Geneva Accord" as it was signed in that city
on December 1, is the product of two years of talks
guided by Yossi Beilin, a former Israeli Justice Minister,
and Yaser Abed Rabbo, a former Palestinian Information
Minister. Main features of the accord include establishment
of the Palestinian state followed immediately by mutual
diplomatic recognition of each other, assignment of
international boundaries based on pre-1967 war lines
of control, withdrawal of all Israeli settlements from
areas under Palestinian sovereignty, the end of all
attacks on Israelis by Palestinians and their supporters,
withdrawal of Israeli Defense Forces from virtually
all occupied territories, designation of Jerusalem as
the capital of both the Israeli (West Jerusalem) and
Palestinian (East Jerusalem) states, and conditions
affecting who and how many among Palestinian refugees
have the "right of return."
- The "People's Voice Initiative" is essentially
a statement of principles drawn up by two men: Israeli
Ami Ayalon, who headed the Israeli Navy and Shin Bet,
Israel's internal security service, and Palestinian
Sari Nusseibeh, president of Jerusalem's Al Qud University.
The heart of this non-partisan effort is a massive drive
for signatures on petitions that will be submitted to
the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority
demanding an end to the bloodshed and insecurity and
the beginning of cooperative social and economic conditions.
The movement's statement of principles includes two
states for two nations, Jewish and Palestinian; borders
based on the lines occupied prior to June 1967; a demilitarized
Palestine; Jerusalem as an open city divided politically
into Jewish and Palestinian neighborhoods, and the right
of return limited for Palestinians to their new state
and for Israelis to Israel.
- The "One Voice" plan is a global, grassroots
umbrella effort whose stated objective is to amplify
the voice of reason, thereby enabling moderates in Israel
and the Palestinian territories to seize the initiative
from "extremists" and set the agenda for resolution
of the conflict. One Voice's modus operandi
involves a world-wide signature campaign on a set of
general principles; a wide-ranging discussion to reach
consensus on 10 core issues; and concerted pressure
on all regional political figures to implement the will
of the majority as expressed by the consensus or suffer
removal from office at the next election.
Although these initiatives indicate the depth and breadth
of the longing for peace and security among both Palestinians
and Israelis, the probability is slim that any of them
will move officials on either side or the approach of
any of the sponsors of the "road map" (U.S.,
UN, Russia, and European Union). What is clear, nine months
after the invasion of Iraq, is that the "road to
Jerusalem" does not run through Baghdad.
This
analysis was prepared by Col. Dan Smith, U.S. Army (Ret.).
Dan, a West Point graduate and Vietnam veteran, is FCNL's
Senior Fellow on Military Affairs.
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