Iraq: Controlling Chaos Collectively
By Col. Dan Smith (USA Ret.)
Among the many inconsistencies of the Iraq conundrum, one that stands out is Washington’s continued rejection of attempts by regional organizations to try to find ways to end the spiraling violence. Yet the countries of the region, through their multinational organizations, are tentatively coming forward to try to find a way out of the sectarian strife that threatens to spiral out of control and out of Iraq and engulf Iraq’s neighbors.
“Tentative” remains the operative word for these organizations – the Arab League and the Organization of the Islamic Conference – which have dismal track records for accomplishing anything substantive. But their involvement will be key to any efforts to end the violence.
The Arab League has been searching for solutions to end the violence in Iraq for several years. For example, the League brought together in the November 2005 Cairo Conference representatives from Iraq’s Shi’ite and Sunni communities. At the end of the three-day meeting, the two sides announced their agreement on a series of confidence-building measures that were heralded as the basis for moving ahead on reconciliation and greater Sunni involvement in Iraq’s political evolution. The problem with what one delegate called the “70 percent solution” was the absence of any Sunni insurgent representatives. Some sources said that insurgent groups were not invited while others said the Shi’ites refused to talk to anyone representing armed factions.
The League tried again to help resolve differences when it held its 2006 summit in Khartoum in March. But the absence of three key participants – Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Libya – effectively undermined the possibility to exert influence on the Iraqi combatants. Another conference originally scheduled for Baghdad in June 2006 was postponed to August and then was cancelled as the League’s attention became focused on the Israeli-Lebanese-Hezbollah war that started in mid-June.
Similar efforts by the Organization of the Islamic Conference are underway today and tomorrow in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. Senior Islamic clerics will reportedly join together in a proclamation (fatwa) calling for an end to the bloodshed and waves of reprisal killings. There will also be a meeting during the conference between representatives of the Association of Muslim Scholars and a representative Ayatollah Ali Sistani. But again, without the presence of leading insurgents, the effect of the Mecca proclamation may be limited.
Considering that the U.S. administration has been trumpeting multinational involvement of neighboring states in the negotiations with Iran over its uranium enrichment program and with North Korea over its nuclear weapons program, the absolute opposition to similar arrangements about Iraq suggests that George Bush wants no possible interference with his grand experiment to introduce democracy to the Middle East.
That is bad diplomacy, bad politics, bad morality.
This
analysis was prepared by Col. Dan Smith, U.S. Army (Ret.). Dan,
a West Point graduate and Vietnam veteran, is FCNL's Senior
Fellow on Military Affairs.
Reviewed:
10/19/2006
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