Comment:
Some 35 organizations are on the list of global terrorists
that the United States has put in its cross-hairs. Yet
more than one year after launching attacks against the
Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan, the fate
of most leaders of both organizations remains largely
unknown.
The "Bush doctrine" of the right of preemptive, unilateral
self-defense against those attempting
to acquire a particular warfighting capability removes
the traditionally accepted justification for preemption:
that the threat be imminent. The mention of WMD "precursors,"
many of which have legitimate uses unrelated to weapons
and warfare, reinforces the discontinuity of the new "doctrine"
from past international practice.
The second interesting aspect of this section is the
declared "war of ideas." Many believe that the core of
the U.S. "victory" in the Cold War was as much moral as
it was political ideology -- and can be replicated. Communism
was "evil"; democracy was "good." But the Cold War ideological
struggle was a competition between differing statist systems
of political and economic incentives more than a moral
confrontation. It was essential secular. Thus its chief
arena of action was political-military and economic.
In the "war against terror," the United States largely
faces sub-state organizations motivated by religious conviction.
Additionally, the countries in which the administration
sees this new struggle being waged have little if any
real experience with democratic institutions. The recent
Pakistani "elections," whose fairness was compromised
by pre-election maneuvers by President Musharraf, saw
religious parties sympathetic to Taliban ideas garner
45 seats in the National Assembly -- up from two in 1997.
This suggests that the United States will have a very
hard time winning the ideological war. Indeed, one fear
is that the Taliban and al Qaeda
will regroup and reorganize in Pakistan.
Moreover, some in the Bush administration have asserted
that the guiding ideology of Saudi Arabia, Wahabism, is
antithetical to western ideas and values. A fair question
is what does this portend for future U.S.-Saudi relations?
This
analysis was prepared by Col. Dan Smith, U.S. Army (Ret.).
Dan, a West Point graduate and Vietnam veteran, is FCNL's
Senior Fellow on Military Affairs..
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