Q: What has led FCNL to work for passage of the Iraq Study Group Implementation Act (S. 1545/H.R. 2574) ?
A: The most important reason is that the bill, like the Iraq Study Group report itself, mandates the comprehensive and sustained regional diplomatic activity that we believe is essential to facilitate the withdrawal of U.S. armed forces from Iraq and reduce conflict in Iraq and the region after a U.S. pullout.
The bill requires the U.S. to negotiate with Iraq’s warring factions and with neighboring states, including Iran and Syria. Such negotiations would represent a dramatic (and it would not be an exaggeration to say “radical”) change in the overall U.S. approach to the Middle East and establish a political and diplomatic framework with a fair chance to bring stability to Iraq and the region.
Q: Apart from requiring negotiations with Iraqis and neighboring states where U.S. withdrawal could be discussed, would the ISG bill do anything to actually bring U.S. troops home?
The bill does not include the binding provision for withdrawal of U.S. forces that FCNL advocates. But it calls for a rapid transition of the U.S. military role from combat to training and envisions the withdrawal of most U.S. combat forces from Iraq by March 2008.
Enactment of the ISG bill, especially with the support of majorities in both parties, which appears possible, would create strong pressure to withdraw U.S. troops in several ways. First, the negotiations themselves will create momentum for withdrawal. Iraqis and the neighboring states will be pressing the U.S. for a phased withdrawal from Iraq. The only plausible purpose of negotiations is to plan for a post-occupation Iraq and Middle East.
Second, passage of the bill will put tremendous pressure on the administration to end the aggressive military operations of the “surge” and begin U.S. troop withdrawal. More than half of the current cosponsors of this legislation are from the president’s own party This bipartisan support is almost certain to be more effective in ending the surge and beginning withdrawal than failed attempts by Congress to enact a binding withdrawal date.
At the same time, approval of the ISG bill—with its goal of a March 2008 withdrawal—will close much of the remaining political distance between the current position of Congress and a binding date for withdrawal. Passage of this legislation would set the stage for, and establish a bipartisan concensus in favor of a plan that would ultimately lead to an orderly U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. In this situation, Congress as a whole would already be urging the administration to meet a March 2008 withdrawal deadline, the only step remaining would be to turn the recommendation into a requirement.
Q: Why support this compromise bill rather than stronger legislation that would set a date certain for the U.S. to begin withdrawing combat troops from Iraq, as FCNL has advocated?
A: FCNL will continue to support legislation to set a date certain for U.S. withdrawal at every opportunity. We are also supporting the ISG bill because we think it may prove for the reasons we’ve mentioned to be the shortest route to withdrawal available. And, again as noted, the ISG bill establishes the diplomatic framework we’re convinced is necessary to reduce violence in post-occupation Iraq and secure stability in the region over the course of this administration and the next. So in the end it could be the “compromise” (or “radical departure”) that proves “stronger” than other than more stringent but unattainable proposals to end the war.
Q: But doesn't the ISG bill take the pressure off Congress to change policy. I support the FCNL position that the U.S. should withdraw military troops from Iraq and participate in internationally led effort to rebuild the country. The ISG bill essentially gives members of Congress a way to say they are doing something, while doing very little or nothing.
A: It’s possible that some members might seek political cover behind the bill while doing nothing to implement its provisions. But anyone taking this tact is not likely to fool many people for very long. The ISG bill establishes a new level of Congressional oversight of Iraq policy by requiring quarterly reports from the administration. Any members who shy away from aggressively exercising this oversight will stand out in the public mind very soon.
And, as we’ve said, passage of the ISG bill would narrow the political distance between where Congress is now and where it will have to go to enact a binding withdrawal measure and stick by it. If the Congressional leadership wants to move ahead to legislate binding withdrawal, approval of the ISG bill will pave the way. (Conversely, if the Congressional leadership is reluctant to move to binding withdrawal, approval of the ISG bill would create more pressure to do so in order to demonstrate partisan policy differences on Iraq.)
Q: It may be that, given the partisan balance and the diversity of opinion in the 110th Congress, the ISG bill offers a good chance of bringing about de-escalation and withdrawal before the end of this administration. But many have associated the ISG report and the bill itself with U.S. attempts to impose oil agreements on Iraq that unfairly favor the international oil companies. Is this a danger?
There is a danger that administration pressure will prompt Iraqis to accept a disadvantageous oil law, but the ISG bill does not increase that danger and would create a modest amount of counter pressure. The bill reaffirms that the U.S. does not seek to control Iraqi oil and calls for the public disclosure of all oil contracts via the internet. These provisions would lend weight to Iraqi parliamentarians and union leaders who are working to keep the sweetheart terms for the oil companies that the U.S. administration supports out of Iraq’s oil law. The ISG bill does call for the equitable distribution of oil revenues among Iraqis, a goal that FCNL supports.
For more information
see FCNL Legislative Secretary Jim Fine’s analysis of the Iraq Study Group Implementation Act
Read a list of cosponsors of this legislation in the House (H.R. 2574) and in the Senate (S. 1545)
For more on FCNL’s Iraq Peace Campaign www.fcnl.org/iraq